Fantasy Playoff Probability 2018 wk11

Only having three weeks cuts down on the number of possible outcomes, however, I did enhance my predictions by adding in uncertainty for the tie-breakers. Previously, whichever team was forecasted to have higher score was ranked higher, which meant the probabilities skewed towards those with more points. This time, I tried to calculate the probability that, for example, the Giants close their 160 point gap in the next couple weeks.

I also realized I was calculating byes incorrectly. The byes go to the division winners, not the top two. This change decreased the Jets chances (they’d have to beat out the Pack to get a bye), and increased the chances for me and IncidentalPunishment.

icon Team (record) E(Wins) E(Rank) Playoffs(%) Bye(%)
icon Pack (9-1) 10.45 1.25 99.99 87.04
icon Vikings (7-3) 8.68 2.84 98.50 73.82
icon Jets (7-3) 8.84 2.87 99.18 12.95
icon Economists (6-4) 7.70 4.53 87.17 17.32
icon IncdtlPun (6-4) 7.73 5.21 77.91 8.85
icon NotGonnaLie (5-5) 6.74 6.29 52.24 0.00
icon Giants (6-4) 6.95 6.38 46.43 0.02
icon Wonders (5-5) 6.82 6.76 38.45 0.00
icon Broncos (3-7) 4.43 9.67 0.09 0.00
icon Fourth (2-8) 3.56 10.29 0.00 0.00
icon Wentz (3-7) 3.99 10.30 0.04 0.00
icon Blue (1-9) 2.11 11.62 0.00 0.00

Even though I won, my playoff chances only increased by 2%. Some of this was because I was expected to beat the Blues, but some was due to the change in methodology (because I’m ahead in points, the naive tie-breaking gives my a 92% chance of making the playoffs).

Top Tier 2018 w11

Middle Crew

Bottom Rung

 


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