Only having three weeks cuts down on the number of possible outcomes, however, I did enhance my predictions by adding in uncertainty for the tie-breakers. Previously, whichever team was forecasted to have higher score was ranked higher, which meant the probabilities skewed towards those with more points. This time, I tried to calculate the probability that, for example, the Giants close their 160 point gap in the next couple weeks.
I also realized I was calculating byes incorrectly. The byes go to the division winners, not the top two. This change decreased the Jets chances (they’d have to beat out the Pack to get a bye), and increased the chances for me and IncidentalPunishment.
| icon | Team (record) | E(Wins) | E(Rank) | Playoffs(%) | Bye(%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
Pack (9-1) | 10.45 | 1.25 | 99.99 | 87.04 |
 |
Vikings (7-3) | 8.68 | 2.84 | 98.50 | 73.82 |
 |
Jets (7-3) | 8.84 | 2.87 | 99.18 | 12.95 |
 |
Economists (6-4) | 7.70 | 4.53 | 87.17 | 17.32 |
 |
IncdtlPun (6-4) | 7.73 | 5.21 | 77.91 | 8.85 |
 |
NotGonnaLie (5-5) | 6.74 | 6.29 | 52.24 | 0.00 |
 |
Giants (6-4) | 6.95 | 6.38 | 46.43 | 0.02 |
 |
Wonders (5-5) | 6.82 | 6.76 | 38.45 | 0.00 |
 |
Broncos (3-7) | 4.43 | 9.67 | 0.09 | 0.00 |
 |
Fourth (2-8) | 3.56 | 10.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
 |
Wentz (3-7) | 3.99 | 10.30 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
 |
Blue (1-9) | 2.11 | 11.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Even though I won, my playoff chances only increased by 2%. Some of this was because I was expected to beat the Blues, but some was due to the change in methodology (because I’m ahead in points, the naive tie-breaking gives my a 92% chance of making the playoffs).
