Expected Wins

I am third in points scored, but 6th overall and in real danger of missing the playoffs. Digs SdLn TD UnBlvbl has had a historically productive season, but somehow has four losses and may not get a bye. There are two things that impact turning total points into wins: who you play and how your points are distributed. For example, Digs would have rather used their nearly 200 point week either last week against NotGonnaLie or the week before against the Pack. It was a bit overkill to use it against a team that barely broke 100.

Using pythagorean expectation, I calculate each teams expected wins (E(W) ), which captures how many wins we would think that would get based on the points they scored and the points their opponents scored. The difference between these the bonus (or loss) from the timing of when points are scored vs when the opponents’ points are scored (Opp_Δ).

I also do the same calculation using an the average points scored (instead of actual opponents) (E(W_1)). The difference between these two captures the bonus or penalty from the set of opponents faced by the team (Time_Δ). The combination of these two factors in a sense captures the team’s luck factor (Tot_Δ).

Observations after the table. Note: The table is sortable.

Div Div Rank Team Avg Pnts Opp_Pnts W E(W) E(W_1) Opp_Δ Time_Δ Tot_Δ
icon S 1 Pack Attack 142.91 122.32 10 8.29 8.10 0.19 1.71 1.90
icon S 3  Dryden Jets 129.26 126.54 7 5.92 6.33 -0.41 1.08 0.67
icon S 4  IncidentalPunishment 119.37 119.43 7 5.49 4.77 0.72 1.51 2.23
icon S 9  The Wrecking Broncs 117.43 127.21 4 3.96 4.45 -0.49 0.04 -0.45
icon S 10  North by North Wentz 114.59 124.76 3 3.87 3.99 -0.13 -0.87 -0.99
icon S 11  fourth and long 108.42 127.79 2 2.58 3.04 -0.47 -0.58 -1.04
icon L 2  Digs SdLn TD UnBlvbl 152.49 128.39 7 8.53 8.99 -0.46 -1.53 -1.99
icon L 5  Theological Giants 118.62 115.79 7 5.98 4.65 1.33 1.02 2.35
icon L 6  Hamilton Economists 130.53 121.46 6 6.89 6.52 0.37 -0.89 -0.52
icon L 7  Not Gonna Lie 129.08 125.09 6 6.12 6.31 -0.19 -0.12 -0.31
icon L 8  Wood Street Wonders 115.10 119.46 6 4.77 4.08 0.69 1.23 1.92
icon L 12  Go Blue 108.89 128.44 1 2.57 3.11 -0.55 -1.57 -2.11

  • As unlucky as Digs has been, apparently GoBlue is unluckier! Looking at their schedule it’s true, they had a bunch of close losses. Still, these numbers are historically high.
  • The Theological Giants must please God, because they have 2.35 more wins than would be expected if they distributed their points in an average manner against average opponents. A full point comes from their league weakest schedule, and another 1.3 is from timing.
  • IncidentalPunishment and the Wonders are up there as well. Three of the five teams fighting for playoff spots have major luck boost.
  • The Pack sits at an insane 10-1, which is just crazy if you remember Yahoo! had predicted them going 0-13!! Oops! But winning that much takes at lest some luck, and for them it seems to be timing based. They’ve had some nice, close wins (Broncos, Giants), and have generally upped their game when needed.

Leave a Reply